— Climate sensitivity to CO2 more limited than extreme projections — A new study suggests that the rate of global warming from doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide may be less than the most dire estimates of some previous studies - and, in fact, may…
— Saving Da Vinci's Last Supper from air pollution — Having survived long centuries, political upheaval, and even bombings during World War II, Leonardo Da Vinci's masterpiece Last Supper now faces the risk of damage from air pollution…
— After 25 years, sustainability is a growing science that's here to stay — Sustainability has not only become a science in the past 25 years, but it is one that continues to be fast-growing with widespread international collaboration, broad disciplinary composition…
— Markets drive conservation in Central Africa — Certification has shown that commercial forestry can co-exist with conservation objectives in the Congo Basin, according to conclusions reached at an international seminar 'Forest management…
— Great Plains river basins threatened by pumping of aquifers — Suitable habitat for native fishes in many Great Plains streams has been significantly reduced by the pumping of groundwater from the High Plains aquifer - and scientists analysing…
— Rivers may aid climate control in cities — Speaking at the URSULA (Urban River Corridors and Sustainable Living Agendas) Conference, in Sheffield, Dr Abigail Hathway, of the University of Sheffield, will demonstrate how rivers…
— Vultures dying at alarming rate — Vultures in South Asia were on the brink of extinction until Lindsay Oaks and Richard Watson, from The Peregrine Fund in the US, undertook observational and forensic studies to find…
— Predicting future threats for global amphibian biodiversity — Amphibian populations are declining worldwide, and their declines far exceed those of other animal groups: more than 30% of all species are listed as threatened according to the Red…
— Study shows deforestation causes cooling — Deforestation, considered by scientists to contribute significantly to global warming, has been shown by a Yale-led team to actually cool the local climate in northern latitudes, according…
'Tipping points' could come this century
A number of key components of the Earth's climate system could pass their 'tipping point' this century, according to new research led by a scientist at the University of East Anglia.
Published by the prestigious international journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS), the researchers have coined a new term, 'tipping elements,' to describe those components of the climate system that are at risk of passing a tipping point.
The term 'tipping point' is used to describe a critical threshold at which a small change in human activity can have large, long-term consequences for the Earth's climate system.
In this new research, lead author Prof Tim Lenton of the University of East Anglia (UEA) and colleagues at the Postdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (PIK), Carnegie Mellon University, Newcastle University and Oxford University have drawn up a shortlist of nine tipping elements relevant to current policy-making and calculated where their tipping points could lie. All of them could be tipped within the next 100 years.
The nine tipping elements and the time it will take them to undergo a major transition are: (1) Melting of Arctic sea-ice (approx. 10 years); (2) Decay of the Greenland ice sheet (more than 300 years); (3) Collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet (more than 300 years); (4) Collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (approx. 100 years); (5) Increase in the El Nino Southern Oscillation (approx. 100 years); (6) Collapse of the Indian summer monsoon (approx. 1 year); (7) Greening of the Sahara/Sahel and disruption of the West African monsoon (approx. 10 years); (8) Dieback of the Amazon rainforest (approx. 50 years); (9) Dieback of the Boreal Forest (approx. 50 years).
The paper also demonstrates how, in principle, early warning systems could be established using real-time monitoring and modelling to detect the proximity of certain tipping points.
'Society must not be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections of global change,' said Prof. Lenton.
'Our findings suggest that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under human-induced climate change. The greatest threats are tipping of the Arctic sea-ice and the Greenland ice sheet, and at least five other elements could surprise us by exhibiting a nearby tipping point.'
Or subscribe for our Newsletter, a free e-mail publication. It is published practically every day.
'Fuel for thought' on transport sector challenges
Conservationist to aid parrots in peril
Project seeks clues to climate change in remote atmospheric region
Creating a safe zone for endangered right whales